Galimberti,F. & Sanvito,S. & Boitani,L. & Fabiani,A. 2001. Viability of
southern elephant seal population of the Falkland Islands. Animal
Conservation. 4: 81-88.

Abstract
Accurate long-term series of demographic data are available for
most populations of southern elephant seals. However, research on
elephant seals of the Falkland Islands began only recently, and
information for an accurate forecasting of the future of this population
is lacking. In this paper, we present data on the current status and of
the population and its trend in size during the last 11 years. We built
an age-structured model of the population and analyzed the effect of
variation in demographic parameters on population growth.  Elasticity
analysis demonstrated that variation in mortality has a more pronounced
effect on instantaneous growth rate than equivalent variation in
fecundity. We examined the effects of environmental variability,
inbreeding, and catastrophes on population viability by computer
simulation using the VORTEX PVA program. In the stochastic model, the
most important factor affecting extinction risk was variability in
mortality rates, in particular of the adult classes. We concluded that,
although the population does not appear to be at immediate risk of
extinction, its small size and isolation make compelling an accurate
monitoring of population trend and the acquisition of additional
information on life history and feeding strategies.